• Always, always, always, take profit. But when? (top signal)
• Diverisify, but do not overdiversify, make high conviction concentrated bets. 5-15 coins in a portfolio is ideal. Diversification preserves wealth, concentration builds wealth. 100x on a 1% allocation is the same as 10x on a 10% allocation.
• Size based on conviction (Big part of portfolio should consist of high conviction coin with higher market cap > low conviction coin with lower market cap)
• Don’t chase the pump or narrative, always wait for dips. If you are really FOMO, buy a small bag first that’s x% of your intended size, so at least mentally you won’t keep thinking about it
• Get in when only a few people are talking about it. Get out when everyone is talking about it
• If found some small cap gems that may moon but have no conviction, ape small first, research later
• Sometimes, even when everyone is talking about an upcoming narrative with strong and clear catalyst (i.e. overcrowded and probably priced in), it is still worth getting in at least a little bit instead of fading it altogether
• Second order thinking - consider the consequence of consequence of an event/ news and see if possible to profit from it.
• Think ‘if I liquidate my entire position, would I buy back the same % of my bags that I hold right now?’. Follow the answer.
• Market can stay irrational (i.e. public and private projects are at ridiculous valuation, parabolic price rise) for a long time, but eventually, inevitably, it will come crumble down, no exception
• When facing existential doubt, make the decision that optimize for surviving to fight another day. If there is any FUD or uncertainty, don’t try to double down to make it all back in one trade, it’s best to sell and cut loss, ignore sunk cost.
• Nothing is truly long term nor guaranteed to go back up. What is good now may not be good tomorrow, don’t get too fixated on what you like now, but develop a list of projects, follow their development, feed youself with new information, and update your thesis
• Do not try to speed up the process. Take it slow and step by step
• Most people (including established VC and KOL) are just trying to psyops you and sell you their bag, don’t fall into their trap
• For small cap illiquid pump&dump coins or some new narrative or farm, best to get out after you have made some profit, don’t try to hodl too long expecting to 100x
• During market uncertainty, sell the small cap coins into stablecoins and blue chips that will survive the bear market (i.e. BTC, ETH)
• Nothing is too big to fail, literally nothing (see MtGox, Terra, Celsius, 3AC, FTX)
• Stay humble. You win because you are lucky, not because of your skills. You are not a genius, you are just lucky.
• Global bottom
• Narrative cycle